"Sideways" was a hit 2004 movie about a troubled guy who loved wine.
Today's stock market also is sideways, but without the wine.
The S&P 500 did edge up to a new record on Friday, finishing at 1900.53, its first close ever above 1900. But the broad S&P is up only 2.8% since the year began. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite Index are even flatter for 2014, with the Dow up a tiny 0.18% and the Nasdaq up 0.22%.
It is rare for all three indexes to be up or down less than 3% this far into a new year. Before now, it had happened only twice, in 1980 and 2010, since the Nasdaq Composite's first full year in 1972, according to Bespoke Investment Group.
Both those years, like the current one, were times of economic anxiety. In 1980, investors faced stagflation. In 2010, the worries were similar to the current ones, focusing on U.S. and European prospects.
In each year, investors overcame their fears. The Dow rose 15% in 1980 and 11% in 2010. Today, despite concerns about sluggish U.S. and European growth and excessive borrowing and real-estate development in China, investors seem to be shrugging off their worries and buying stocks again.
Last week, the Dow managed a 0.70% gain, its best week since May 2. It finished at 16606.27, barely ahead for 2014 but just 0.65% from the record 16715.44 hit May 13.
"A sideways pattern on a chart is not a horrible thing after last year's 32% increase" in the S&P 500, said Michael Farr, president of Farr, Miller & Washington, which oversees $1.1 billion in Washington, D.C.
Mr. Farr worries that stocks aren't cheap after more than doubling in value since 2009. But he sees little sign either of an end to the U.S. recovery or of an inflation problem that would force the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy suddenly.
"I think the market is expensive," he said, "but I don't think it is stopping" its gains. He thinks stocks could drift mildly higher this year, giving corporate earnings a chance to catch up with last year's stock gains, making stocks less expensive.
Currently, the S&P 500 trades at 25 times its companies' average earnings for the past 10 years, according to widely followed data from Nobel-prize-winning Yale economist Robert Shiller. That is expensive, well above the historical average of about 16, but still below the excessive highs of 2007 and 2000.
One index that has been worrying investors is the Russell 2000 small-stock index, which has fallen 6.8% since its March 4 record. But even it is down only 3.2% since the year began.
More important, almost every other important stock category is showing gains, said Doug Ramsey, chief investment officer at Leuthold Group, which manages $1.6 billion in Minneapolis.
Normally, Mr. Ramsey says, individual stock groups such as transportation stocks, financials and utilities turn down before broader indexes such as the Dow and the S&P. That hasn't happened yet.
"As long as you are making new highs that are fairly broadly confirmed by leading groups, such as cyclical stocks, utilities, etc., we are probably destined to make even higher highs," Mr. Ramsey said. "It still looks like a very broad market," with few stock groups weakening, he said.
Mr. Ramsey said he wouldn't be surprised to see a dip, say 6% to 8%, over the summer; summer often features such a pullback. But he thinks it would be temporary.
High stock prices and the uncertain economy still have many investors worried, which helps explain why stocks are having so much trouble moving higher.
Money managers also are nervous about the likelihood that the Fed will start gradually raising its benchmark overnight interest rate as soon as mid-2015. While that is some time away, it is a reminder that the Fed is steadily becoming less friendly.
But market interest rates today still are much lower than most analysts had predicted, meaning bonds offer an unappetizing alternative to stocks. Many people still are afraid to miss out on future stock gains, which has helped prevent big declines.
John Kosar of Asbury Research in Schaumburg, Ill., is watching for signs that stocks are running out of steam, but so far he isn't finding them. Instead, he told clients Friday, three indicators suggest stocks could move higher, at least in the next few weeks.
First, computer-chip stocks, which had been trending down since early April, are rebounding. Because computer chips are basic components for technology products, gains for these stocks can precede broader tech-stock gains, Mr. Kosar said.
"Semiconductors typically lead technology and technology typically leads the U.S. broad market," he told clients.
In addition, investors are moving money to an exchange-traded fund tracking big Nasdaq stocks, also suggesting a tech recovery. And the S&P 500's monthly rate of change has turned positive, suggesting acceleration in the broad market.
As long as indicators like these stay strong, Mr. Kosar said, markets can head higher.
On top of all this, the economic news is improving.
An updated calculation of first-quarter U.S. economic growth is due Thursday, and Capital Economics warned on Friday that it could show a 0.6% contraction. But the research firm said other data suggest the economy is already rebounding. On Friday came news of a recovery in new-home sales. This week's reports on durable-goods orders and personal spending also could be upbeat, Capital Economics forecast.
