Thursday, October 31, 2013

Online platforms a growing threat to traditional advisers

Online personal finance startups and discount trading platforms are not just for the do-it-yourself crowd anymore — and that poses a threat to traditional financial advisers, new reports from Corporate Insight and Cerulli Associates Inc. show.

The Corporate Insight study, released Wednesday, takes note of more than 100 investing and personal finance startups with great appeal for younger investors. Nearly twice as many U.S. retail investors are using direct-to-investor platforms offered by discount brokerages such as The Charles Schwab Corp., Fidelity Investments and E-Trade than in 2008, when the financial crisis hit, according to the Cerulli report, released Monday.

“As a member of Gen X/Y, I find obfuscated fees, wrap programs and commissions are a huge turnoff,” Bill Winterberg, a certified financial planner and publisher of the website FPPad.com, wrote in an e-mail. “The direct providers largely operate in this clear and simple pricing realm, so they're poised to win more and more business.”

While discount brokerages have long appealed to do-it-yourself investors, their improved tech platforms and financial planning services now also appeal to mass-affluent investors who lost trust in big banks during the market meltdown. Add to that the growing popularity of online startups, and it's clear that traditional financial advisers must now work harder to capture investors' assets.

Corporate Insight's report, “Next-Generation Investing: Online Startups and the Future of Financial Advice,” examined more than 100 investing and personal finance startups and found that they are redefining how investors get financial advice with scalable, low-cost solutions.

Among these startups are Jemstep, which offers automated “buy” and “sell” recommendations for client portfolios; Covestor, which allows investors to mimic the trades of professional investment managers; and LearnVest, which offers online-only personal financial adviser relationships without any face-to-face interaction.

To be sure, not all of these startups will succeed.

“The reality is that I looked at 130-odd startups and some of them will fail,” said Grant Easterbrook, a Corporate Insight analyst and the report's author. “There is an attrition rate, especially as they are tied to the market. If the market tanks due to the euro or the Middle East or quantitative easing, customers will flee to the sidelines.”

Mr. Easterbrook added, however, that the proliferation of startups highlights the longer-term trend of baby boomers being replaced by Generation X and Generation Y investors.

“When you look at those Gen X and Y investors, they're not as interested in face-to-face meetings, and they have a lot of negative perceptions about the major financial institutions,” he said. “These people don't trust the big wirehouses.”

According to the Cerulli report, “U.S. Retail Investor Product Use 2013," of the roughly $27 trillion in retail investor assets! , $4.3 trillion now is on discount brokerage platforms — twice as much as in 2008. The advisory channels account for $15.4 trillion of that total, while channels such as non-adviser-sold retirement plans account for $4.5 trillion.

At $5.2 trillion in assets, wirehouses still control the largest slice of the advisory segment, but their influence is slipping. “The four firms that comprise the channel have lost overall market share in the last several years, but remain the most concentrated asset bases in the retail investing world,” Cerulli reported.

As online tools become more popular, however, assets will move away from wirehouses toward independent advisory channels, as well as direct distribution platforms, especially for mass-affluent investors with assets in the $500,000 to $2 million range, the Cerulli report predicted. Among the channels, registered investment advisers have seen “the most appealing growth” in the past four years, the report noted.

“The results, to me, signal the ongoing trend that began nearly 15 years ago — the ongoing rise of discount brokerage platforms [as they] continue to commoditize the core elements of creating and implementing portfolios,” Michael Kitces, partner and director of research at the Pinnacle Advisory Group

Wednesday, October 30, 2013

Once spooky Oct. serves up Wall St. treat

NEW YORK — October, a month with spooky connotations on Wall Street is proving it isn't as scary as its reputation.

As the month nears its end, stocks are poised to deliver a profit-filled sweet surprise to investors, who don't seem scared off by market history: crashes in 1929 and 1987 shortly before Halloween.

The Standard & Poor's 500, up 5.4% this month, is on track for itsbest monthly gain since October 2011. Tuesday's 1771.95 close marked the 33rd record close of 2013, the most since 1999, says S&P Dow Jones Indices.

The S&P 500 is up 24.2% this year, on pace for its best annual gain since 1995.

Of course, Halloween isn't until Thursday, and the Federal Reserve could still throw a fright into the market if it emerges from its meeting Wednesday and announces a monetary tightening move. Absent such a shock, no one seems afraid of buying stocks.

MARKET STRATEGY: 'Sell in May' stock advice proves costly

FED MEETING: Tapering of stimulus unlikely this week

Tech stocks are enjoying a renaissance that harks back to 1999, as investors bid up shares of hot names like Google and social media darlings like LinkedIn and Yelp. They're also salivating over next week's initial public offering of Twitter, the micro-blogging site best known for its 140-character "tweets." Blue chip stocks are flying high, too, as are small stocks.

TWITTER IPO: Regular folks can afford to wait

Wall Street headed into the month worried about an array of risks. They ranged from political gridlock in Washington and the threat of a fresh fiscal crisis, to ongoing worries about the pace of corporate earnings and concerns that the Fed would soon turn off its stimulus spigot that has powered stocks higher for years.

A government shutdown did occur, lasting 16 days. But the nation didn't default on its debt, which was the market's biggest fear. The Fed's decision last month not to cut back on its bond-buying program to boost the economy also turned a possible headwind! into a tailwind. And corporate earnings for the July-through-September quarter are coming in at a growth rate of 4.9%, vs. an estimate of 3.4% on Oct. 1.

Stocks now enter what historically has been their best six-month stretch. November is the Dow's second-best performing month in the past 20 years.

EARNINGS: Corporate profit powers ahead again in Q3

If the increasingly frothy market is to keep chugging higher, it will need to start going up on more than just the cheap money flooding the market from the Fed and global central bankers, says Quincy Krosby, a market strategist at Prudential Financial.

"The market needs to climb on the backs of better earnings reports and better economic data," Krosby says. "We want to see more evidence of growth and a pick up in consumer confidence."

Edward Yardeni, chief investment strategist at Yardeni Research, says his biggest fear is "that we have nothing to fear but the notion that there is nothing to fear." A continued market "melt-up," Yardeni says, would make him more "worried about a market meltdown."

Tuesday, October 29, 2013

Will RadioShack Stock Benefit from This Move?

RadioShack

With shares of RadioShack (NYSE:RSH) trading near $3, is RSH an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

RadioShack is engaged in the retail sale of consumer electronics goods and services through its RadioShack store chain. The company operates in two segments, U.S. RadioShack company-operated stores and Target Mobile centers. The U.S. RadioShack company-operated stores segment offers a number of wireless communications, computers, tablets, e-readers, home electronics, and other related products. The Target Mobile centers segment offers wireless handsets with activation of third-party postpaid wireless services. RadioShack operates stores throughout the United States, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

On Thursday, RadioShack shares were down severely after a report that the company is thinking about hiring a financial adviser to aid in repairing its balance sheet. Sources told trade publication Debtwire that RadioShack plans to accept offers for a financial adviser in the coming weeks to examine a possible a balance sheet fix while it faces a series of debt maturities, escalating cash burn, and swollen inventory levels. Consumer electronics will always have their place in American homes, and if RadioShack can repair its business, it stands to see consistent profits.

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart are Weak

RadioShack stock has been on a severe decline over the past several years. The stock is currently experiencing a fair amount of volatility on recent news. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, RadioShack is trading slightly below its key averages, which signals neutral to bearish price action in the near term.

RSH

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility and implied volatility skew levels of RadioShack options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

Implied Volatility (IV)

30-Day IV Percentile

90-Day IV Percentile

RadioShack Options

207.72%

90%

93%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a significant amount of call and put options contracts, as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

Put IV Skew

Call IV Skew

August Options

Steep

Average

September Options

Steep

Average

As of Friday, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers and low demand by put buyers or high demand by put sellers, all neutral to bearish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a significant amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bearish over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Decreasing Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on RadioShack’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and year-over-year revenue growth figures for RadioShack look like and, more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

2013 Q1

2012 Q4

2012 Q3

2012 Q2

Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)

-437.50%

-634.57%

-470.00%

-187.50%

Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)

-7.04%

-6.55%

-3.06%

1.20%

Earnings Reaction

0.95%

0.32%

7.53%

-28.76%

RadioShack has seen decreasing earnings and revenue figures over the past four quarters. From these numbers, the markets have been a bit optimistic about RadioShack’s recent earnings announcements.

P = Excellent Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has RadioShack stock done relative to its peers Best Buy (NYSE:BBY), Aaron’s (NYSE:AAN), Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT), and sector?

RadioShack

Best Buy

Aaron’s

Wal-Mart

Sector

Year-to-Date Return

31.60%

146.58%

6.08%

13.69%

18.62%

RadioShack has been a relative performance leader, year-to-date.

Conclusion

RadioShack is a consumer electronics retailer that operates in the United States and its regions. The company is said to be looking to hire a financial adviser that will help straighten out its balance sheet. The stock has not done well over the past couple of years and is now experiencing some volatility. Over the last four quarters, earnings and revenue figures have been decreasing, although the markets have been optimistic about recent earnings announcements. Relative to its peers and sector, RadioShack has been a year-to-date performance leader. WAIT AND SEE what RadioShack does in coming quarters.

Monday, October 28, 2013

Top Three Insider Buys of the Week

According to the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener the following three companies reported the largest insider buys last week. These are the largest insider buys in terms of transaction amount, level of insider making buys and number of insiders buying. Each of the following three companies involve transactions valued at over $100,000 and have multiple insiders making buys.

Biglari Holdings (BH)

Over the past week there have been several insider buys. The insiders making buys thus far are Interim CFO and VP Duane Geiger, Director Philip Cooley, Director Sardar Biglari and Director Kenneth Cooper. These insiders bought a total of 5,318 shares at a price of $265 per share.


Director Biglari made the largest transaction of the week adding 5,165 shares. He spent a total of $1,368,725 on this transaction. After his most recent buy, Biglari now holds on to at least 269,663 shares of his company's stock.

[url=www.gurufocus.com/insider/BH][ Enlarge Image ][/url]

The company has upped its insider buying as the price is nearing a 10-year high.

Biglari Holdings is a diversified holding company engaged in a number of diverse business activities. The Company is currently engaged in and the franchising and operating of restaurants.

Biglari's historical revenue and net income:

[ Enlarge Image ]

The analysis on Biglari reports that the revenue has slowed down, they have issued $72.812 million of debt over the past three years, its price is near a 10-year high and its P/E ratio is nearing a 10-year low.

The Peter Lynch Chart suggests that the company is currently undervalued:

[ Enlarge Image ]

There are currently two gurus that hold a position ! in Biglari Holdings.

Chefs Warehouse Holdings (CHEF)

Over the past week there were three directors making buys into Chefs Warehouse Holdings. The directors making these buys were Joseph Cugine, Alan Guarino and Stephen Hanson. These three directors bought a total of 33,000 shares at $21 per share. The directors spent a cumulative $693,000 on these buys. Since their buy, the price per share has increased about 9.67%.

Stephen Hanson made the largest buy, adding 30,000 shares to his stake. The insider spent a total of $630,000 on this transaction. Hanson now holds on to 44,984 shares of the company's stock.

[url=www.gurufocus.com/insider/CHEF][ Enlarge Image ][/url]

These buys come as the company is nearly at its 10-year high.

Chefs Warehouse Holdings is a specialty food products distributor. It supplies products like specialty cheeses, truffles, seafood, cooking oils, flour to the restaurants, country clubs, hotels, caterers, culinary schools and specialty food stores, etc.

Chefs Warehouse's historical revenue and net income:

[ Enlarge Image ]

The analysis on Chefs Warehouse reports that the price is at a one-year high, the revenue has been in decline over the past year and the company has issued $113.329 million of debt over the past three years.

The company finalized its public stock offering on Sept. 25.

Chefs Warehouse Holdings has a market cap of $486.3 million. Its shares are currently trading at around $22.98 with a P/E ratio of 31.30, a P/S ratio of 0.80 and a P/B ratio of 10.50.

Education Realty Trust (EDR)

Over the past week two insiders made some buys. Both the CEO as well as the company's CFO made these buys.

Executive VP, CFO and Treasurer Randall Brown bought 5,500 shares at $9.04 per share. This cost him a total of $49,720. The price per share has increased 1! .44% sinc! e then. Brown now holds on to 99,346 shares of company stock.

President and CEO Randy Churchey bought 20,000 shares of company stock at an average price of $8.99 per share. This cost the CEO a total of $179,800. The price has increased 2% since then. The CEO now holds on to 283,280 shares of Education Realty Trust stock.

[url=www.gurufocus.com/insider/EDR][ Enlarge Image ][/url]

Insider buying for Education Realty Trust has increased since the company's price hit a 52-week low and is on the rebound.

Education Realty Trust develops, acquires, owns and manages student housing communities located near university campuses. The company currently owns or manages 67 communities in 24 states with 37,060 beds within 12,359 units.

EDR's historical revenue and net income:

[ Enlarge Image ]

The company recently released its pre-leasing statistics. The statistics highlighted a fall 2013 same-community pre-leasing occupancy of 93.6%, a 290 basis point improvement from last year. EDR also reported that their new communities, representing eleven communities, are at a 94% preleasing occupancy.

Education Realty Trust has a market cap of $1.06 billion. Its shares are trading at around $9.17 with a P/E ratio of 90.80, a P/S ratio of 6.20 and a P/B ratio of 1.40. The company currently holds a dividend yield of 4.50%.

There are currently five gurus that hold a position in Education Realty Trust.

You can view a complete list of CEO buys and sells here.

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Related links:GuruFocus All-in-One Screenercomplete list of CEO buys and sellsTry a free 7-day premium membership

Saturday, October 26, 2013

Why Intuitive Surgical Sank Again

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of robotic surgery system specialist Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ: ISRG  ) plunged yet again on Friday after it issued guidance that disappointed Wall Street, and said that the FDA had issued a warning letter over one of its facilities.

So what: The stock already plunged last week after management issued a second-quarter sales warning, so today's downbeat full-year guidance, coupled with the FDA's letter to resolve some of its concerns, only reinforce the worry that analysts have been having. While safety concerns have weighed on the stock for several months now, fellow Fool Dan Carroll noted earlier that the seemingly drastic slump in da Vinci sales suggests that all of those issues are finally hitting Intuitive where it hurts most -- on the bottom line.    

Now what: Management now expects full-year sales growth between zero and 7% over 2012, well below Wall Street's view of a 15% increase. "Though some da Vinci procedures mature in the United States, we are increasingly exposed to volatility in patient admissions for our core procedures and the consequent lumpiness in capital sales," said CEO Gary Guthart in a conference call with analysts. Of course, with the stock now off a whopping 40% from its 52-week highs, and trading at a 10-year low P/E, much of the uncertainty surrounding Intuitive might already be discounted into the price.

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Friday, October 25, 2013

3 Important Stories You May Have Missed on Friday

Not a trading day passes when some stocks experience some kind of significant event. These events can have a massive impact on the stocks you own and the health of your portfolio. It can be hard to keep up with it all, and my fellow Fools and I are happy to bring you the latest news. Today, I'll review three events you might have missed on Friday.

Let's first start with Boeing (NYSE: BA  ) and the fire at London's Heathrow Airport. Around mid-afternoon, a Boeing 787 Dreamliner parked in a service area of the airport caught fire. Preliminary reports didn't indicate whether the fire had started in the battery compartment or if it was related to the electrical system at all, but we do know that it wasn't a result of the plane's engines, as General Electric quickly released a statement indicating that it hadn't been caused by the key components GE supplies to Boeing.

You may recall that Dreamliners had been grounded for a number of months following a number of battery-related issues. But did you know that the plane that caught fire on Friday at Heathrow was owned by Ethiopian Airlines? And that the Dreamliners owned by that airline had been the first to be retrofitted by Boeing with equipment to help protect the plane from any further issues with the battery system? These fixes had been approved by the FAA and other regulators around the world before the 787s were permitted to fly.

When the Heathrow news hit the markets, the stock initially fell by more than 7%. Boeing's weight within the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI  ) pulled the index to its lowest point of the day, down 50 points. But as Boeing slowly recovered during the latter part of the day, the Dow managed to close higher by just 3 points.

One story that surely slid under a number of investors' radars was that AT&T (NYSE: T  ) made an offer of $15 per share, or just under $1.2 billion, to buy Leap Wireless (NASDAQ: LEAP  ) . The report wasn't released until after the regular trading day ended on Friday. Shares of AT&T ended the after-hours session flat, at $35.81, but Leap's shares rose an incredible 116.92% to hit $17.31 per share, or a full $2.31 higher than AT&T's offer price. Investors may be betting that this first bid won't ultimately win and that perhaps AT&T or another company will come in with a higher offer. AT&T, for its part, is looking to gain market share in the lower end of the wireless business.

Lastly, we move outside the Dow Jones, as Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX  ) announced a new way to hold an earnings release conference call. On July 22, the company plans to stream its earnings conference on its own streaming video service platform for shareholders, investors, and other analysts to watch, while CEO Reed Hastings and other top brass will answer questions from one analyst and one news reporter, as opposed to the traditional format in which a number of analysts get a chance to ask management a question. Shares of the company closed Friday up 5.36% following news of the new format.

More Foolish insight
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Strategies: Start your own food business on the…

Paul Newman did it. Heidi Klum did it. Jimmy Dean did it. Ludacris did it.

Many people dream of taking their favorite recipes and turning their love of food into their own business.

SERIES: Recipes for a smart small business
STORY: Pump, pig out at gourmet gas stations

Starting a food-oriented small business can be more than just a dream. If you want to package and sell your soup, jam, candy or grandma's salsa, you'll find many customers willing to try your new taste sensation, plenty of places such as farmers' markets to sell your product, and believe it or not, you can have low start-up costs.

Of course, health inspectors and customers want to make sure the food you're selling is absolutely safe. So you have to follow state laws, especially on where and how you prepare your goodies.

Home kitchen

The least expensive way to start your packaged food business is to prepare goods in your own home kitchen. Until recently, many states banned the sale of any food made at home.

But as the cottage food industry became widely popular, state laws have evolved, enabling many more people to create foods for sale from their own kitchens.

Actor Paul Newman, who died in 2008, started out making bottles of salad dressing to give as Christmas gifts and went on to found Newman's Own, whose profits are donated to charity.(Photo: Newman's Own)

A dizzying array of state laws cover home-prepared specialty food products. Issues such as these:

• The types of foods you can sell.

• Ingredients you can use.

• Labeling.

• Maximum income you can make.

• Where products can be sold.

• Whether kids or pets can be in the kitchen while you cook.

For informatio! n about laws in your state, go to www.cottagefoods.org.

Commercial kitchens

As your business grows or if your state prohibits making food for sale from home, you'll need to use a commercial kitchen.

Commercial kitchens that rent out by the hour or on a short-term basis are becoming far more common, especially in larger cities. In smaller towns, you may be able to rent commercial kitchen space from restaurants, community centers and churches.

Mixed vegetables sit in jars before brine is poured over them as part of the canning process in a commercial kitchen in the Pine, Ariz., home of Ray Stephens. He and his wife have sold their jams and pickled vegetables under the "Ray'z Not Yet World Famous" label across Arizona.(Photo: Michael McNamara, The Arizona Republic)

One cutting-edge example of a new option in commercial kitchen spaces is Prep in Atlanta, set to open in January.

Prep not only will include a commercial kitchen, a gluten-free kitchen, and a meat kitchen approved by the U.S. Department of Agriculture but also facilities for food trucks to prepare food, get supplies such as propane and ice, and park. Prep includes a TV studio so culinary entrepreneurs can create videos to help promote their products and services.

"I found it cumbersome to go through all the aspects of launching a food business," said the company's founder, Michele Jaffe. She got her inspiration when trying to launch a granola business.

All of the laws overwhelmed her.

When she looked for a commercial kitchen, she needed to sign a contract for at least 20 hours a month, but she had no idea how many hours she needed. Prep will offer greater flexibility.

"Let them increase their ! hours as ! production increases," Jaffe said. "That way, they can determine whether they really want to do this for a living."

Using a rental kitchen offers more than compliance with state health laws. Typically, you'll have access to equipment that would be very expensive for a start-up business to purchase, such as ovens that can accommodate 25 sheet pans at a time, a blast freezer, a 30-quart mixer and walk-in coolers and freezers.

When choosing a commercial kitchen, consider factors such as these:

• Equipment. Does it have what you need?

• Storage. Dedicated or shared? Secure? Refrigerator and freezer space as well as shelf space?

• Hours of use. What hours are available? Will you need to come in the middle of the night?

• Management. Does it have supervision to reduce the likelihood of theft or misuse?

• Price. Hourly fees can be as low as $20 an hour, especially for non-peak periods or when contracting for a large number of hours.

• Minimum hours required. Reserve enough time for all preparation and cleanup; overtime charges tend to be hefty.

• Other fees. Check fees for each kind of storage and other services such as receiving goods.

• ServSafe certification. Some kitchens require all participants to have food handling safety certification, which means less likelihood of contamination.

Finally, make sure the place is sparkling clean. Your future customers will thank you.

"I didn't want to be making my granola when the person using the space before me didn't clean up properly and now my granola tastes like pickle juice," Jaffe said.

Rhonda Abrams is president of The Planning Shop and publisher of books for entrepreneurs. Her most recent book is Entrepreneurship: A Real-World Approach. Register for Rhonda's free newsletter at PlanningShop.com. Twitter: @RhondaAbrams. Facebook: facebook.com/RhondaAbramsSmallBusiness.Copyright Rhonda Abrams 2013.

Thursday, October 24, 2013

How to always choose the best investments for yourself

"I am always at a loss while planning my finances. With so many options and choices available, everything looks green in one second and completely in red the next second. I get confused a lot on choosing the best investment option for me, what can I do about it?" Not only the beginners but also the experts get such thoughts many times.

What is known as the best investment option?

To be frank with you there is no "best investment option". There is only the right investment option. The right investment option is the one that helps you meet your financial goals. Are there any criteria available to buy the right investment products? Of course yes. Read on to get clarification on all your doubts.

Understand what you need

At times, I have seen people who are not clear about what they need. When i ask them 'what kind of investment you are looking for?' the typical answer i get is 'low risk with quick and high return'.

Detail what you are looking from an investment:

• What for you are investing? ( financial goals)

• How long you will stay invested?

• What kind of risk you are willing to take?

• How much you are planning to invest?

• How are you going to invest? Lumpsum or periodical...?

This gives you clarity about what you want. This clarity helps you avoid 50 percent of your confusion and makes your short listing process easier.

Understand the product before investing:

Understanding the different investment vehicles will help you avoid the balance 50 percent confusion gives you more clarity.

• What are all the charges involved in this investment?

• What are all the different types of risks involved in this investment?

• Is there any lock-in period?

• How long i need to stay invested to get an optimum return?

• How much return i can expect from this investment?

• What is the tax liability for the returns from this investment?

Understanding is the one simple thing that can make or break your relationship with your investment as well as your spouse. Take time to understand what you need and in which you are planning to invest.

Warren Buffet quotes "Don't invest in something you don't understand"

Let me give you 3 examples, about how investors invest without understanding and how to correct them.

People trade in shares and derivatives without understanding the risk:

Trading in derivatives is a zero-sum game. Money is not getting generated in trading. Money is getting rotated from one pocket to another pocket. Whatever the gain you make out of trading is somebody else is loss. Whatever loss you make is someone else's  gain.

In investing, both the parties, buyer and seller can make money. In trading any one of the parties can make money.

Also for trading in shares or derivatives, you need not pay the full value. By paying just 15 percent to 20 percent of your trading position,  you are allowed to trade. So you end up taking more risk then you are afford to take risk. If the trade makes you loss, the loss can be more that what you have paid. So you may need to pay more from your pocket to cover your loss.

Understand how the guarantee works in your investments:

People invest in insurance products like the highest NAV guaranteed ULIPs thinking that they have invested in risk free instruments.  It is extremely essential to know how guarantee works here.

ULIPs begin with the highest exposure to equity funds, then slowly move to debt funds. Upon maturity, they increase the fraction to debt funds. NAV is maintained within the pre-set level as the equity profits are transferred safely.

Ok, NAV is maintained as guaranteed, what is there to worry about? Is this what you think? Please understand that the high NAV is not the same as high market value. Also, keep in mind that the investments involving equities do not guarantee assured returns.

Understand the interest rate risks associated with your investments:

Most of the times, you invest in income funds and gilt (g-sec) funds without understanding the interest risk in it. Gilt funds are mutual funds connected with government sector securities. The income funds are the mutual funds invested in government, municipal, corporate debt funds and dividend paying instruments.

You must understand the difference between credit risk and interest risk here. As gilt funds are supported by government, you almost have nil credit risk. But, the interest rate and bond prices in gilt or government security funds and income funds are inversely related. When the interest rates go high, the government security gilt funds and income funds value drops down. So you may incur losses in gilt funds and income funds.

The most important steps you must take while choosing the investment option:

1. Do not recklessly follow what the agent or the relationship manager talks about the products.

2. There is no guarantee or risk-free plan come along with equity investments. When you hear about 'guarantee' connected to any product, understand it well how it works in the market.

3. Ask questions about the interest risks, credit risks and other threats associated with the products.

4. Learn well about the key fundamentals used in calculating the stock value.

5. Educate yourself about various products like equity, debt and other investment options.

6. Always read the instructions in the brochures and get all your queries clarified before investing.

Be very careful and do not hesitate to ask questions to the agents talking to you about various products. Do not blindly sign the application form because of laziness or falling victim to marketing pressures.
Always remember that no supernatural number will give you an idea whether to sell or buy your stocks. Educate yourself very well before taking decisions!

Education brings awareness. Awareness brings understanding. Understanding brings clarity. Clarity removes confusion and brings confidence. By understanding your requirement and the investment product you will transform from a confused investor to a confident investor.

The author is Ramalingam K, CFP CM is the Chief Financial Planner at holisticinvestment.in, a leading Financial Planning and Wealth Management company.

Wednesday, October 23, 2013

The Federal Reserve and Volatility: More Bark Than Bite

If you thought last month was volatile, you were on to something. News that the Federal Reserve could soon reduce its support for the economy sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI  ) barreling up or spiraling down by triple-digit margins in 16 of the month's 20 trading sessions. But at the end of the day, the reaction to the Fed's announcement turned out to be far more bark than bite.

Let me be clear: June was anything but docile for investors. The average daily movement of the Dow was 136 points. This was the highest average since the year 2000, and it handily beat out the runners-up (2012 and 2008), which came in at an average of 115. In addition, as I alluded to, a full 80% of the trading days closed either higher or lower by a triple-digit margin.

Year

Average Daily Move (Points)

No. of Trading Days

No. of Triple-Digit Moves

% of Triple-Digit Moves

2013

136

20

16

80%

2012

115

21

9

43%

2008

115

21

11

52%

2002

102

20

12

60%

2010

101

22

10

45%

2000

97

20

10

50%

2011

95

22

9

41%

2006

80

22

6

27%

2007

79

21

7

33%

2001

75

21

7

33%

2009

67

22

5

23%

2003

66

21

5

24%

2004

48

21

1

5%

2005

42

22

4

18%

Source: Yahoo! Finance

If one were to stop here, it'd be tempting to conclude that last month was the most volatile June on record, or at least since the turn of the century. But, as you may have guessed, there's more to the story.

Take a look at the following table. By these measurements, June was actually a comparatively pedestrian month. Average daily volume was the second lowest in the past 14 years. And it was in the middle of the pack in terms of both the average daily percentage movement and the aggregate change (in absolute points and percentage) between the beginning and the end of the month.

Year

Average Daily Volume

Average Daily Movement

Total Point Movement

Total Movement (%)

2006

3,149,845

0.73%

(18)

(0.16)

2002

2,891,860

1.06%

(682)

(6.87)

2008

2,528,548

0.94%

(1,288)

(10.19)

2009

2,510,945

0.78%

(53)

(0.63)

2007

2,489,343

0.59%

(219)

(1.61)

2003

2,375,167

0.73%

135

1.53

2001

2,326,814

0.69%

(410)

(3.75)

2005

2,283,355

0.40%

(193)

(1.84)

2010

2,246,218

1.00%

(363)

(3.58)

2004

1,957,671

0.46%

247

2.42

2011

1,762,027

0.79%

(155)

(1.24)

2000

1,726,040

0.91%

(74)

(0.71)

2013

1,494,224

0.91%

(206)

(1.36)

2012

1,422,186

0.92%

487

3.93

Source: Yahoo! Finance.

Now, this isn't to say that there weren't individual exceptions last month. UnitedHealth Group (NYSE: UNH  ) , for instance, was up by approximately 5% over the course of June. This has been a particularly hot sector of late given the ongoing developments in health care. As my colleague Dan Caplinger pointed out, last April, the government had to delay a central component of Obamacare. And this past week, it did the same with a second component -- to read more about this, check out Dan's take on it here. Both moves give insurance carriers like UnitedHealth more time to figure out how to comply with the legislative overhaul.

On the downside, alternatively, shares of Alcoa (NYSE: AA  ) plummeted by more than 10% over the same time period. The problem in this regard is the same one that gold stocks like SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEMKT: GLD  ) are facing -- for an interesting take on why so many investors fell for the gold bubble, click here. That is, commodity prices are falling as investors and traders come to the realization that a long-assumed wave of inflation simply isn't materializing. Thus, because Alcoa's fortunes are largely a function of aluminum prices, which have been falling, well, you can do the math.

These performances aside, the overall lesson here is that it sometimes pays to look at the facts behind the media's hysteria. Was June a trying month for investors? Sure. But, at the end of the day, it really wasn't all that different from any other June.

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Tuesday, October 22, 2013

No Takers for Endeavour International

Last February independent oil & gas company Endeavour International Corp. (NYSE: END) initiated a strategic review to help it "further enhance shareholder value." The company needed the help. Its size works against it. At the time of its announcement, the company's market cap was just around $225 million.

The strategic review boosted the share price back over $7, but Monday's announcement that the strategic review resulted in essentially no change has hit shareholder value in a negative way. Endeavour said its board "has determined that it is [in] the best interests of shareholders to retain and exploit its existing asset base." To further that plan the company is closing its London offices and its executive v-p for international operations is gone.

Endeavor owns assets onshore in the U.S. and in the U.K. region of the North Sea. The company expects to begin production "imminently" at the Rochelle field which will be operated by Nexen, the former Canadian firm that was acquired by China's Cnooc Ltd. (NYSE: CEO) earlier this year.

Cnooc is part of the consortium that is going to pay a $7 billion signing bonus to Brazil for winning the one-bid auction to develop the offshore Libra field offshore. The Chinese firm's 10% stake in the consortium could cost it $700 million.

Of course Libra promises billions of barrels of reserves while Endeavour's proved reserves at the end of 2012 were 47.2 million barrels of oil equivalent of which 62% is oil. Endeavour's share price today is near $6, and with 42.6 million shares outstanding the company's market cap is around $277 million. That prices Endeavor's barrels at around $9.50 each. A good price, but Cnooc was not interested. Not a good sign.

Monday, October 21, 2013

This Week's 5 Dumbest Stock Moves

Stupidity is contagious. It gets us all from time to time. Even respectable companies can catch it. As I do every week, let's take a look at five dumb financial events this week that may make your head spin.

1. South of the hoarder
It seems as if DIRECTV (NASDAQ: DTV  ) wasn't doing as well in Latin America as we may have thought.

The satellite television leader is taking a $25 million charge to account for bogus subscriber accounting after discovering that some of its Sky Brasil employees were improperly crediting subscriber accounts. The move inflated the subscriber count to the tune of 200,000 subscribers as of the end of March. Creating the illusion that those subs were still around also artificially reduced DIRECTV's churn rate.

DIRECTV expects the subscriber count to be corrected by the end of the June quarter, but it's still an embarrassing episode for the company that many see as the class act of satellite television.

2. Still wrong when it comes to Netflix
Analysts have been burned on both sides of Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX  ) over the years, and for now, it continues to be the bears getting scorched.

Bernstein Research analyst Carlos Kirjner is lowering his rating on the leading video service provider from market perform to underperform, but he has been so wrong on where the stock has been heading, that he's actually dramatically boosting his price target on the shares from $125 to $180.

When an analyst upgrades a stock while lowering its price target, or downgrades a stock while raising its price goal, it's a dead giveaway of a Wall Street pro that got it wrong.

3. Demand isn't the man
Shares of Demand Media (NYSE: DMD  ) plunged more than 20% on Monday after the content farm operator hosed down its near-term outlook.

A reduction in referral traffic from search engines is brutal, because Demand Media's model relies on farming out content on the cheap, and making that back through traffic from organic search engine results.

Things just haven't gone well for Demand Media since going public at $17 in early 2011. A couple of analysts -- including JMP Securities and Stifel Nicolaus -- lowered their stock ratings on the news.

4. Throwing the book at the Nook tablet
After nearly three years, Barnes & Noble (NYSE: BKS  ) has had enough of its money-losing foray into tablets.

The struggling book retailer finally pulled the plug on its Nook Color. Barnes & Noble will continue to make its traditional Nook e-readers, but the market for multi-purpose color tablets that also double as e-readers was just too cutthroat for a company that has a long road back to turning an annual profit. 

Letting go is the right call, but it makes the cut this week because the chain went with tablets in the first place. It was never going to undercut the e-reader leader that has no problem taking a hit on the hardware in exchange for hooking a buying into its ecosystem. Barnes & Noble is in a difficult spot as store sales stumble, and it should've been devoting more of its attention to promoting its original Nook product line.

It will do that now, but it may be too late.

5. Shield your eyes
NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA  ) was hoping to make a big splash in the portable gaming market with Thursday's introduction of Shield. 

Well, it didn't happen. 

A day before the handheld Android gaming device's debut, NVIDIA announced that a mechanical issue would be bumping the gaming gadget's rollout to later this summer.

NVIDIA Shield was already off to a dubious start. Last week, NVIDIA cut the price from $349 to $299. You don't often see that happen days before a release unless demand was soft. Now, the delay is going to make more early adopters cautious about diving into a device where a mechanical defect didn't come to light until a day before its actual retail release.

NVIDIA is a great company when it comes to graphic chips, but it has a lot to prove now when it comes to gaming hardware. 

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Sunday, October 20, 2013

A New Headwind For Pacific Ethanol

Executive summary

Pacific Ethanol returned to profitability in Q2 and experienced improved operating conditions in Q3. The company has also recently taken a number of steps to reduce its feedstock costs and increase its product margins. The market continues to favor Pacific Ethanol's industry peers over the company, however, and a recent leak of proposed regulation from the EPA introduces uncertainty with a bias to the downside to the company's share price.

Introduction

Three months ago I wrote that the stock performance YTD of independent ethanol producer Pacific Ethanol (PEIX) was an "aberration", especially in light of the performance of its industry peers' shares. The discrepancy between Pacific Ethanol's share price and those of its peers has only grown more pronounced since July (see figure). Green Plains Renewable Energy (GPRE) and REX American Resources (REX) have continued to greatly outperform the S&P 500. Even Biofuel Energy, which fell behind on its interest and debt payments over the summer and is facing a shareholder-ruining liquidation, has seen its share price perform significantly better than Pacific Ethanol's in 2013. The oddest part about the stock's performance over the last three months, however, is that the period has been marked by multiple positive announcements from the company. It late July it reported its first positive EPS in almost two years for Q2 (0.07). Its Q2 EBITDA of $3.8 million was its highest since Q4 2011. Its current ratio is well above its previous lows, its ratio of total assets to total liabilities is increasing, and its total shareholders' equity is at a 3-year high. Despite these improvements, the company's price/book ratio is a mere 0.77.

PEIX Chart

PEIX data by YCharts

Pacific Ethanol at a glance

Pacific Ethanol operates four starch ethanol facilities with a combined capacity of 200 mi! llion gallons per year [MGY] in California, Oregon, and Idaho. Unlike most U.S. ethanol companies, which primarily source their feedstock from and operate in the Midwest U.S., Pacific Ethanol isn't afraid to source its feedstock from abroad and market its product to many of the Pacific Coast's urban centers. Furthermore, it also relies upon natural gas for process heat and power, as opposed to many Midwestern facilities that continue to rely upon coal for this purpose. The company fared well during the summer 2012 drought relative to its Midwestern peers due to its lack of exposure to the Midwest corn crop but was still a loss-maker in absolute terms, generating negative EPS and EBITDA numbers during all four quarters of 2012 (see table). A strengthening crush spread in H1 2013 brought the company back into positive territory, first with gross profit in Q1 and then with EPS and EBITDA in Q2. This crush spread strengthened further in Q3 (see figure), which should translate into a strong earnings report for the quarter.

PEIX Financials

 Q2 2013Q1 2013Q4 2012Q3 2012Q2 2012
Total Revenue ($MM)233.81225.46197.02215.86205.45
Gross Profit ($MM)6.970.85-4.71-2.44-4.90
Net Income ($MM)0.74-5.77-5.80-6.30-2.94
Diluted EPS0.07-0.04-0.04-0.05-0.03
EBITDA ($MM)3.8-0.15-3.0-5.3-8.0

Source: PEIX

CORN Chart

CORN data by YCharts

Pacific Ethanol has taken a number of steps this year toward diversifying its feedst! ock suppl! y and increasing its volume of biofuel production qualifying as an advanced biofuel under the revised Renewable Fuel Standard [RFS2]. In March it reported that it was replacing some of its corn feedstock with grain sorghum that, when combined with the company's use of natural gas for process heat and power, allows the resulting ethanol to achieve the 50% greenhouse gas [GHG] reduction threshold relative to gasoline necessary to qualify as an advanced biofuel. Earlier this month it reported that it had purchased enough beet sugar to serve as feedstock for 12 million gallons of ethanol, further increasing the company's advanced biofuel production. These moves will provide Pacific Ethanol with two short-term financial advantages relative to its dedicated corn ethanol peers. First, both advanced biofuel feedstocks are attractively-priced relative to corn at the moment; grain sorghum prices have fallen faster than corn prices since April (see figure) while the beet sugar was purchased from the USDA at a discount to corn.

US Corn Farm Price Received Chart

US Corn Farm Price Received data by YCharts

Second, advanced biofuels qualify for D5 Renewable Identification Numbers [RIN] through the RFS2, which trade at a substantial premium to corn ethanol [D6] RINs. While the spread has narrowed from its highs in previous years, D5 RINs still trade at a 44% premium to D6 RINs. Pacific Ethanol's advanced biofuel production thus combines cheaper inputs with higher product margins (after accounting for RIN value passed through from blenders) relative to corn ethanol production. While the advanced biofuel production only contributes to part of the company's total production, every additional gallon represents an improvement to product margins.

An EPA game-changer?

Unfortunately for Pacific Ethanol, the advanced biofuel margin could be on the verge of losing its financ! ial premi! um relative to corn ethanol. Earlier this month a proposed rule from the EPA, which oversees the RFS2, on the 2014 volumetric mandates was leaked to the press. This proposed rule would respond to the looming 10 vol% ethanol [E10] blend wall by reducing the 2014 total renewable fuel volumetric mandate by almost 3 billion gallons. While roughly half of this decrease would come from a reduction to the corn ethanol mandate, which would be lower in 2014 than in 2013 (let alone relative to the originally-mandated 2014 volumes), the advanced biofuel mandate would be reduced from the originally-mandated 3.75 billion gallons to 2.17 billion gallons. Of this latter number, roughly 2 billion gallons would be attributable to biomass-based diesel, leaving at most a mere 170 million gallons available to ethanol producers qualifying for the advanced biofuel category. This 170 million gallons would be competed for by importers of Brazilian cane ethanol, domestic producers of sorghum and beet ethanol, and any biomass-based biodiesel production in excess of its own mandate. Any advanced biofuel production in excess of this volume would not qualify for D5 RINs. Furthermore, since the proposed rule would also reduce the corn ethanol mandate in 2014 relative to 2013, D6 RINs would also be expected to fall to near-zero, thus depriving advanced biofuel producers from taking advantage of the mandate's nested categories to salvage some value by earning D6 RINs in place of D5 RINs.

It is important to note that the leaked EPA document is a proposed rule that has yet to complete its review with the White House. Following the White House review it will undergo a period of public comment, the response to which will be considered when drafting the final rule. This public comment period is more than a formality, as the EPA has made major revisions to proposed rules on the RFS2 in the past in response to public comments. At the same time, however, the EPA gave itself a deadline of November 30 to publish the final rule and the mai! n lobbyin! g organization for the refining industry has threatened to sue if this deadline is not met (notwithstanding the recent government shutdown). This development could limit the public comment period, depending on how seriously the EPA takes the threat of litigation. A substantial amount of uncertainty relating to the content of the eventual final rule still exists and investors should not be surprised if the proposed rule is modified at some point in the near future. The proposed rule's revisions to the RFS2 were unexpected, however, and did not move in the direction that investors in the biofuel industry prefer to see.

Conclusion

While I remain convinced that Pacific Ethanol's current share price remains an aberration relative to the rest of the industry (it certainly shouldn't be faring worse than Biofuel Energy on the year based on its recent earnings reports), I am no longer as bullish as I was in July on the company's future prospects in light of the EPA's leaked proposed rule. The continued fall by the company's share price despite its return to profitability in Q2 2013 and improved operating conditions in Q3 does raise the question of just how much of an improvement will be necessary for the company's shares to increase in value. It also raises the prospect that the market will punish Pacific Ethanol more than its peers should the EPA's proposed rule remain largely unchanged when its final rule is published. This additional element of uncertainty is biased to the downside, as the share prices of starch ethanol producers largely ignored the leak of the proposed rule (unlike refining shares, which surged in response). Investors in Pacific Ethanol should mark November 30 on their calendars and prepare for increased volatility in the days before the EPA's final rule deadline.

Source: A New Headwind For Pacific Ethanol

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. (More...)

Saturday, October 19, 2013

No Default, No Doubt: S&P 500 Hits Record High as Standoff Ends

When I was growing up, a new movie starring Sylvester Stallone or Arnold Schwarzenegger alone would have been a box office hit. The two of them together? That would have been mana from heaven for Hollywood. These days, not so much. The roll out of their new film, Escape Plan, is drawing little more than shrugs.

AFP/Getty Images How happy were markets that Washington made a deal? Almost as happy as the Afghanistan soccer team after beating Pakistan in August.

Still, Escape Plan seems like an appropriate film for this week’s stock market. Stallone plays a security expert who is paid to break out of jail–but gets stuck in a CIA prison…forever. The government shutdown and debt-ceiling fiasco had that feel. Like being stuck in jail with a hint of release or having to watch Arnold and Sly ham it up in 2013. Either way. Take your pick.

So when the deal was struck, the government reopened and the debt ceiling raised, stocks celebrated. The S&P 500 gained 2.4% to 1,744.50, a new record high and the 28th this year. The Russell 2000 rose 2.8% to 1,114.77, also a record high–its 54th this year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose just 1.1% to 15,399.65.

The short-term nature of the deal–the government is funded only through Jan. 15 and the debt ceiling extended until Feb. 7–means there’s a good chance we’ll be doing this all over again in three months. Won’t that be fun? RBC Capital Market’s Tom Porcelli and team explain why the short-term deal could push off tapering far into the future:

The timing on the debt ceiling extension in particular is interesting from a monetary policy perspective. Fed officials have been rather clear that the reason they decided against tapering in September was based on fear political negotiations would generate an adverse outcome. Our original stance was tapering had been pushed off to March, but this needs to be re-thought in light of the Feb 7 debt ceiling extension. In reality, thanks to the Treasury Department's ability to employ extraordinary accounting measures, we will not hit the ceiling until at least mid March and perhaps even as late as June. In the context of a Fed that decided to unload a massive surprise on the market by not tapering in September, if political turmoil awaits us early in the new year, perhaps we need to begin thinking of tapering as a Q2 event.

Earnings were a mixed bag this week. Thomson Reuters Greg Harrison explains:

20% of the S&P 500 companies have reported Q3 2013 EPS. Of the 98 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for Q3 2013, 62.2% have reported earnings above analyst expectations, 13.3% reported earnings in line with analyst expectations and 24.5% reported earnings below analyst expectations. In a typical quarter (since 1994), 63% of companies beat estimates, 17% match and 21% miss estimates. Over the past four quarters, 66% of companies beat estimates, 10% matched and 24% missed estimates.

Citigroup’s Tobias Levkovich argues that there is “more upside in the next year beyond EPS
growth.” He writes:

The approach taken to normalize the multiple by using cyclically adjusted P/E ratios and the futures contract on the bond yield provides an intriguing set of statistics that supports further equity index gains beyond the expected 6%-like profit growth. Indeed, the probability of a respectable upward market move is better than 90% while the P/E bull's-eye work also shows that stocks are poised for incremental appreciation.

Stocks have escaped Washington. Can they achieve escape velocity?

Some individual stocks certainly did this week. Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) rose 19% to $509.74–a new all-time closing high–despite missing earnings forecasts. Strong same-store sales will do that. Baker Hughes (BHI), meanwhile, gained 11% to $55.55 after the oil-services company reported far stronger earnings than analysts had expected thanks to its business in the Middle East and Asia Pacific. Advance Auto Parts (AAP) gained 20% after purchasing a competitor and making itself the largest auto-parts supplier by revenue.

Others, however, gave back six months of gains in one week. That was the case for Select Comfort (SCSS), which plunged 29% to $18.60 this week after missing earnings forecasts and cutting guidance for the second time in 2013. Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), meanwhile, fell 15% to $77.16 after it beat earnings but lowered its guidance. It blamed weak margins in its security business, emerging markets and…wait for it…the government shutdown.

There is no escape.

Thursday, October 17, 2013

Ritholtz’s Big Picture: 24-7 Media Cycle Is Going to the Blogs

A pundits’ panel of chief strategists who are regularly quoted in broadcast, online and print media joined star bloggers Barry Ritholtz and Josh Brown on Tuesday to bemoan the insanity of the 24-7 financial news cycle.

At his fifth annual Big Picture Conference in New York, Ritholtz welcomed his new Ritholtz Wealth Management partner, Brown of Reformed Broker blog fame, to moderate a “View from the Chief Strategist’s Chair” panel that focused largely on modern-day media’s effects on market volatility.

“The reason I do as much tweeting as I do is because I retweet every eighth tweet of Josh’s tweets,” Ritholtz quipped as he introduced Brown. (Ritholtz is no stranger to social media – TED Talks credits his Big Picture blog as one of “100 websites you should know and use,” while Matt Miller of Bloomberg says Ritholtz “consistently makes more sense than anyone else in media” and Randall Forsyth of Barron’s calls The Big Picture “a must-read blog.”)

With that media-savvy opener, Brown introduced himself as “the Mohamed El-Erian to Barry’s Bill Gross if they were really into carbs,” then launched the panel with this self-critical question: “We’re awash in information. With all the tweeting and blogging out there, it’s hard to keep up with what’s going on. Is there too much noise?”

Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Lazard Capital who appears on Larry Kudlow’s CNBC “The Kudlow Report,” volunteered that the biggest change in technology, social media and the 24-7 media cycle is that “you can exaggerate points that don’t matter that much because it’s the only piece of economic data that day and there’s not that much going on.”

Hogan, who acknowledged that he was the oldest panelist, recalled that market participants “used to talk about three-month moving averages, but now you’ve got people asking, ‘What’s going on today?’ and half of your job is talking to newspeople.”

Jeffrey Kleintop, chief market strategist at independent broker-dealer LPL Financial, who often gets quoted on CNBC and Bloomberg, noticed that markets in the 24-7 news climate can get obsessed about one thing briefly before moving on to the next obsession.

“Remember Syria? Or the Italian elections?” Kleintop said. “The key thing is to keep in perspective what the markets have forgotten about.”

Kleintop added that he travels across the country and meets with LPL’s 70,000 affiliated advisors, who are all reading the news and paying attention to issues such as the debt ceiling and the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing (QE) program.

“You have to seriously consider data points, because when you talk to advisors you don’t want to sound out of touch,” Kleintop said, noting that the anecdotes he hears around the country create a psychological mosaic of where advisors think the U.S. economy and markets are headed.

But panelist Daniel Greenhaus, chief global strategist at institutional trading brokerage BTIG, who makes appearances on Bloomberg TV and works with clients in the hedge fund world, said that hedgies take a longer view and avoid the noise in the blogosphere: “If you talk to George Soros, all he wants is the big picture view of QE tapering: ‘When will the Fed stop buying back bonds? Next spring? OK, now let’s talk about something else.’ None of those guys at hedge funds have a clue what Dave Camp is doing as chairman as the House Ways and Means Committee. They literally don’t care. They simply want to know what cash flows will be. The big guys stay laser-focused on individual stocks.”

---

Read Reformed Broker on New Ritholtz Firm: Our Blogging Is Research at ThinkAdvisor.

Wednesday, October 16, 2013

24/7 Wall St.: 11 countries with perfect credit

A bipartisan deal was reached to end the government shutdown and raise the debt ceiling on Wednesday. While this provides immediate relief, the agreement is only a short reprieve. Funding to the government now ends January 15, and the debt ceiling will only be raised through February 7th.

This follows nearly two weeks of acrimonious debate in the House and Senate which triggered concern in the markets about downgrades by the major credit agencies. In fact, Fitch Ratings warned on Tuesday that it might downgrade U.S. debt amid fears Congress could not find a resolution to the raising the debt ceiling. Fitch and Moody's still assign the U.S. their top ratings (AAA and Aaa respectively); Standard & Poor's downgraded the U.S. to AA+ in August 2011.

As of October 16, Fitch was alone with its downgrade warning. At the time, S&P spokesman John Piecuch told reporters that the agency's ratings reflected the potential that a deal could not be struck between Democrats and Republicans. In the last two years, three major countries have lost their top rating from at least one agency: the United States, the United Kingdom and France. In light of the Fitch warning, some have wondered what those few remaining AAA-rated countries have going for them. 24/7 Wall St. examined the 11 countries with perfect AAA ratings from all three ratings agencies.

When determining a country's debt rating, agencies consider several factors, including the country's political climate. Most of the countries with AAA ratings have a stable political environment, something the U.S. can no longer exactly claim. Few of these countries have faced the bitter battle that was and may continue to be waged in the U.S. over federal spending and debt.

The countries with the highest credit ratings are wealthy economies, with high levels of GDP per capita. All 11 of these countries are in the top 25 for this figure. Luxembourg, by virtue of its growing financial services industry, generated GDP per capita income of nearly $78,! 000 2012, 50% greater than in the U.S.

U.S. government gross debt amounted to 102% of GDP in 2012, 11th highest in the world. On Some of the top-rated countries have relatively low debt to GDP, including Australia and Luxembourg, which had debt levels at 27% and 21% of GDP in 2012.

Having low debt to GDP, however, is not necessarily a sign of a stable economy. According to many economists, wealthy, stable countries are able to borrow significantly more than developing nations. For some countries, high debt is a sign of a healthy economy. Five of the AAA-rated countries had debt exceeding 50% of national GDP as of 2012.

To determine the countries that are higher rated than the U.S., 24/7 Wall St. reviewed credit ratings for sovereign countries published by Moody's, Fitch, and Standard & Poors (S&P). In order to make the cut, nations had to be awarded the highest possible credit rating from each institution– Aaa from Moody's, or AAA from S&P and Fitch. We excluded countries with very small economies, including the Isle of Man, Guernsey and Liechtenstein. Unemployment rates are from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, excluding Singapore, while further data on economic activity is largely from the IMF's World Economic Outlook.

1. Australia

> S&P/Moody's ratings: AAA/Aaa
> S&P/Moody's outlook: stable/stable
> 2012 GDP growth: 3.7%
> Unemployment rate: 5.8%

Australia's AAA rating is based on a solid economy and low government spending. By 2012, the economy had grown by an average of 3.5% a year for more than 20 years. The government debt-to-GDP ratio was 27.9% at the end of 2012, low even among countries that received top ratings from all three agencies. If there's a vulnerability, it's that much of the economy is based on exports of natural resources and energy to fast-growing economies, especially China. Growth in the last few years has been stressed by softening conditions in China, but not nearly enough! to threa! ten Australia's high ratings.

MORE: The best (and worst) countries to grow old in

2. Canada

> S&P/Moody's ratings: AAA/Aaa
> S&P/Moody's outlook: stable/stable
> 2012 GDP growth: 1.7%
> Unemployment rate: 6.9%

Canada's economy mirrors the U.S. economy. It has a big automotive sector. Technology companies are growing in and around Vancouver and Toronto. It is the largest supplier of energy to the U.S., including oil, natural gas, uranium and hydroelectricity. In all, roughly three quarters of Canadian exports go to the U.S. The country was hit hard by the 2008-2009 recession, first with its automotive sector slumping and then with declining commodity prices, especially oil. Canadian banks, however, largely weathered the economic storm. Also, recent rising oil prices and exports to the U.S. have boosted the economy.

3. Denmark

> S&P/Moody's ratings: AAA/Aaa
> S&P/Moody's outlook: stable/stable
> 2012 GDP growth: -0.4%
> Unemployment rate: 6.6%

Denmark's finances are in solid shape, despite after-effects from the 2008-2009 financial crisis and the eurozone crisis. Government debt is 59% of GDP, higher than any other AAA rated economy. Denmark has considerable strengths, including a vibrant maritime industry and a strong pharmaceutical industry. Unemployment, however, remains relatively high at 6.6%, but the rate has come down slowly from 7.4% 12 months earlier.

4. Finland

> S&P/Moody's ratings: AAA/Aaa
> S&P/Moody's outlook: stable/stable
> 2012 GDP growth: -0.8%
> Unemployment rate: 8.0%

Finland became an economic star in the 1990s and the first part of the 21st century because of rapid growth in technology and telecommunications. Nokia contributed a quarter of the country's growth and paid as much as 23% of Finnish corporate income taxes by itself between 1998 and 2007, according to The Economist. But the recession and the eurozone crisis have hurt the econo! my. Perha! ps worse has been Nokia's decline in the face of Apple's ascendancy.

5. Germany

> S&P/Moody's ratings: AAA/Aaa
> S&P/Moody's outlook: stable/negative
> 2012 GDP growth: 0.9%
> Unemployment rate: 5.2%

The last few years have not been easy for Germany because of the ongoing struggles of eurozone nations such as Greece, Cyprus, Ireland, Spain, Portugal, and Italy. However, many economists believe the worst of Europe's economic troubles are over. That should help Germany's exports, which are already equivalent to more than 51% of total GDP. While Moody's says the German government finances are in good shape, the ratings agency maintains a negative outlook on German debt because of all the contingent liabilities the country assumed keeping the eurozone afloat.

6. Luxembourg

> S&P/Moody's ratings: AAA/Aaa
> S&P/Moody's outlook: stable/negative
> 2012 GDP growth: 0.3%
> Unemployment rate: 5.8%

Three factors help Luxembourg's credit rating: it's close to France, Germany, and Belgium; it has a diversified economy; and its financial sector has helped insure that its per capita incomes are among the world's highest. Luxembourg suffered from the 2008 financial crisis and slowdown prompted by the debt problems elsewhere in the eurozone. The nation's GDP fell by 0.7% in 2008, and then by an additional 4.1% in 2009.

7. The Netherlands

> S&P/Moody's ratings: AAA/Aaa
> S&P/Moody's outlook: negative/negative
> 2012 GDP growth: -1.2%
> Unemployment rate: 4.9%

As the year began, weakness in Dutch banks and the broader Dutch economy threatened the Netherlands' AAA rating. All three ratings agencies continue to rate Netherlands' outlook as negative. Fitch cited sagging home prices and worsening public debt picture as reasons for the negative outlook. After a housing boom-and-bust, some 25% of mortgages in the country are underwater, Fitch says. Still, the country has the eurozone's fift! h largest! economy..

MORE: The most educated countries in the world

8. Norway

> S&P/Moody's ratings: AAA/Aaa
> S&P/Moody's outlook: stable/stable
> 2012 GDP growth: 3.0%
> Unemployment rate: 3.6%

Lucky Norway. It has a small population and abundant reserves of crude oil lying under the North Sea. The country's unemployment rate is among the lowest in Europe. Norway offers its citizens a generous set of social benefits. Its sovereign wealth fund has nearly $800 billion in assets and is the world's largest. Because of its oil reserves, Norway's government was able to spend around 43% of GDP in 2012, yet still have a total debt obligation equal to just 34% GDP. Only Luxembourg and Australia have less government debt as a percentage of GDP among the AAA-rated countries. No wonder that S&P and Moody's see Norway as a AAA credit and stable.

9.Singapore

> S&P/Moody's ratings: AAA/Aaa
> S&P/Moody's outlook: stable/stable
> 2012 GDP growth: 1.3%
> Unemployment rate: 2.1%

Singapore is one of the most business-friendly countries in the world, according to the World Bank. It's the only country in southeast Asia with a AAA rating from all three agencies. The island nation of 5.3 million people, is a transportation hub, a technology center, and an important banking center. It's also jobs friendly with an unemployment rate of just 2.1%. However the country is restricted by its small land size, and has to expand its actual land area through reclamation.

10. Sweden

> S&P/Moody's ratings: AAA/Aaa
> S&P/Moody's outlook: stable/stable
> 2012 GDP growth: 1.0%
> Unemployment rate: 8.0%

Sweden's unemployment rate is relatively high at 8%, but its strong overall fiscal management keeps impressing ratings agencies. Public debt, which was as high as 73.3% of GDP in 1996, dropped to 38% at the end of 2012. Like just about every European country, Sweden was staggered by the 2008 financial cr! isis and t! he eurozone debt crisis later. But the economy has been recovering, albeit slowly.

MORE: Countries with the most multimillionaires

11. Switzerland

> S&P/Moody's ratings: AAA/Aaa
> S&P/Moody's outlook: stable/stable
> 2012 GDP growth: 1.0%
> Unemployment rate: 4.2%

Switzerland is a model of consistency. Government spending runs at just about 33% of GDP year after year. Government debt-to-GDP ratio is just under 50% year after year. It is a very prosperous country built around its financial services industry (UBS and Credit Suisse), its big drug and food companies (Novartis and Nestle), its transparent legal system, its advanced transportation network and, of course, the scenery. But its prosperity and stability can also be a problem. The Swiss franc has appreciated by 22.5% against the euro and 24.5% against the U.S. dollar over the last five years. 44% against the U.S. dollar since the end of 2005 and 36% against the euro since a low in 2007. That threatened important Swiss exports — such as watches, scientific instruments and the like — and forced the Swiss to intervene to drive the franc lower in 2011.

24/7 Wall St. is a USA TODAY content partner offering financial news and commentary. Its content is produced independently of USA TODAY.

Tuesday, October 15, 2013

The Potbelly Stock Pullback Is Actually A Good Thing

Potbelly Corporation (NASDAQ: PBPB) was among the hottest of the hot IPOs of 2013 when you count first day gains as a public company. The problem is that the sandwich chain became too hot to handle for new investors. Barron’s recently couldn’t help but call the stock grossly overvalued and that helped send shares south amid more government shutdown and debt ceiling debate uncertainty. We felt the stock was overvalued too, but this pullback is something that we would call a really good thing.

If you have been to a Potbelly sandwich shop there is one thing you probably know. The sandwiches are great, but we would always admit and warn any investors that no one should simply just buy a stock just because you like their products. Still, repeat traffic is high, market penetration is very low in many geographies, and some major geographic gaps exits entirely. We also have hears that complaints are few and far between compared to other casual dining and fast food (or relatively fast food) chains, at least according to diners and from insiders.

So, why is a falling share price a good thing?

For starters, people who buy an IPO up 100% and hope that the price will just keep rising are not exactly going to be the most loyal shareholders in the world. We even think Barron’s was right that the stock was overvalued, but we have an issue with how low they put the perceived valuation as being back closer to the IPO price of $14.00.

Our take is that when an IPO of a semi-national retail or restaurant chain doubles in price out of the chute then it is usually the underwriters who got the IPO so wrong. That is not enough to prevent a gap and crap trade, where share trade higher out of the chute only to crater in price. If you have followed Potbelly shares the trading has been ugly since the IPO. Still, Potbelly being evaluated at $14 by Barron’s sure seems like more of a Nervous Nelly evaluation than it is a bull market valuation.

We mentioned in our pre-IPO analysis that Potbelly’s initial IPO price range did not seem aggressive at all. We also praised their sandwiches, but again that is not the only reason to buy an IPO. What is obvious is that Potbelly has major growth opportunities in the decade ahead, and that is where “the Barron’s bash” from this last weekend is simply grossly overstated by our take. In fact, it would not be surprising to us at all to see twice as many Potbelly stores by 2020 as there are in late 2013. We would disclose that this projection is far more aggressive than some would call for but that is what makes a ballgame.

Can you blame the Potbelly drop on market uncertainty? Perhaps, but we would point out that shares were falling last week even when the markets rallied on hopes to a resolution in Washington D.C. about the government shutdown and debt ceiling. We said that trading was poor already, but Potbelly shares have traded up on only one trading day since the IPO and that was by a mere 1% or so.

The true logic behind the rationale that a selloff in this stock is good is because this pullback will ultimately allow a much stronger shareholder base to form. Getting strong institutional investors and individual investors to hold through good times and bad times at 75-times to 125-times earnings is asking too much. Today’s $25 or so price after yet another 4% drop may not even be the bottom, and frankly the price action of the stock is not indicating that any bottom has been found at all.

Shares hit a post-IPO low of $23.77 on Tuesday against post-IPO high of $33.90. Yes, that is a drop of over $10 from peak to trough. We still argue that this is a good thing for investors who want to own a piece of this great restaurant chain at lower prices.

We doubt that Potbelly is headed back to $14 as Barron’s suggested, even if it is 114-times trailing earnings. Anything is possible, but from an outsider’s view we think that anything under $20 will start to entice a better base of shareholders. We are probably going to refrain from covering Potbelly too much until the dust settles in the days or weeks ahead. The IPO after-market sometimes acts as crazy as hot IPOs but in reverse order.

Another warning is that there are the IPO-lockup shares that will come out in a few months as well. That will likely bring up another round of weakness, but will still likely allow an even better entry point for long-term holders. Calling a sell-off a good thing sounds counterintuitive when you consider that someone is likely losing money, but the people who are losing money in Potbelly at the current time are the ones who were only looking to make a quick buck in the first place.

This stock may still sell off further, but it will likely be a good thing for the long-term investors who recognize the value when the dust settles.

MannKind Gains, Acorda Therapeutics Loses as Trial Results Released

Acorda Therapeutics (ACOR) has dropped today after announcing the results of a clinical trial.

Getty Images

From Accorda’s press release:

Acorda Therapeutics, Inc. today announced data from a Phase 2 proof-of-concept study of dalfampridine extended release tablets, 10 mg (dalfampridine-ER) in people with post-stroke deficits. In the study, treatment with dalfampridine-ER was well-tolerated and improved walking, as measured by the Timed 25-Foot Walk test (T25FW).

RBC Capital Markets’ Michael Yee and team put the news in context:

In the short-term, ACOR’s scripts look a bit mediocre tracking a tad shy of Q3 consensus, and overall new scripts are down too. Longerterm, we believe value creation will need to come from 1) expanding the label to a new indication in “post-stroke” pts which is going into Phase II/III and could theoretically double the commercial sales, 2) its re-myelinating antibody rHigM22 in Phase I might get attention because Biogen’s Phase II LINGO re-myelinating program could be very intriguing in H2:14. Risks are that a Paragraph IV should be expected in January 2014 around the corner and the “post-stroke” data is interesting but not as compelling versus the MS indication. Overall, however this will take some time to play out as the next post-stroke study doesn’t even begin until Q2:14 so data not until at least 2015+. That said, expectations are pretty low and we think the stock is pretty cheap at $1.1B EV or ~3x sales plus all potential upside from label expansion or pipeline.

MannKind (MNKD), meanwhile, has gained after asking the FDA to approve its inhaled diabetes drug Afrezza. The Associated Press has the details:

MannKind has no drugs on the market. It first filed for Food and Drug Administration approval of Afrezza in March 2009, and in early 2011 the FDA told the company to run more clinical studies. The agency wanted MannKind to use the studies to compare its new inhaler with an older inhaler that was used in previous studies. In August, MannKind said drug met its goals in both trials.

Cowen’s Simos Simeonidis and team warn investors that an FDA approval is not guaranteed:

It appears that the company did these two trials after working closely with FDA, and despite some potential debate about secondary endpoints, which we consider more relevant to commercial impact vs. approvability, both trials met their primary endpoints. So, if AFREZZA were almost any other product, that had met both primary endpoints in two Phase III trials designed after close discussions with FDA, the third time around, approval would probably not be in much debate. However, given that this is AFREZZA, which could be a paradigm-shifting drug on the one hand, has the potential to be used by millions of patients, is a growth factor that is rapidly inhaled into the lungs, and would be the second inhalable insulin, after a product that had potential links (even if they were never fully established, and even if AFREZZA has been shown to have a clean safety profile, up to now) to lung damage and lung cancer, we believe that an approval should not be considered a foregone conclusion. Though we believe that AFREZZA should be approved, based on what has been communicated by MannKind regarding their interactions with the
FDA, especially the agency’s willingness and interest in approving AFREZZA, if its full dataset establishes its safety, we also believe there is still the outside chance of a negative surprise in the form of the agency asking MannKind to jump through additional hoops.

Acorda has dropped 6.3% to $33.12 today at 2pm, while MannKind has gained 5.1% to $5.37. Vertexs Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) has gained 3.3% to $73.25, Celldex Therapeutics (CLDX) has jumped 2.4% to $27.86 and Gilead Sciences (GILD) has ticked up 0.8% to $63.18.

Sunday, October 13, 2013

Tobacco and Gold - Seth Klarman’s Stocks Near 52-Week Low

The portfolio of Seth Klarman, author, value investor extraordinaire and portfolio manager of The Baupost Group, currently shows 24 stocks, five of them new, and a total value of $4.02 billion. His quarter-over-quarter turnover is 22%.

Here are two stocks held by Seth Klarman, a tobacco leaf company and a gold mine, both popular with billionaire investors and both hovering above a 52-week low.

Alliance One International Inc. (AOI)

Predictability: 1 out of 5 Stars

Down 12% over 12 months, Alliance One International Inc. has a market cap of $251.53 million; its shares were traded at around $2.86, which is 2.4% above its 52-week low. The P/E ratio is 65.10, and the P/B ratio is 0.80.

Alliance One is a tobacco leaf supplier serving the world's largest cigarette manufacturers. The company purchases, processes, packs, stores and ships tobacco to manufacturers of cigarettes and other consumer tobacco products throughout the world. Alliance One deals mainly in tobacco types used in international brand cigarettes. As a tobacco leaf merchant, Alliance One purchases tobacco grown in over 45 countries and serves cigarette manufacturers in over 90 countries.

The company reported financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2013, with a net loss of $36.9 million, down further from a net loss in the same quarter last year of 30.7 million. The net loss translates to $(0.42) per basic share for the reporting quarter.

Historical share pricing, revenue and net income:

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Guru Action: As of June 30, 2013, Seth Klarman holds 7,669,969 shares, valued at $29.14 million, and weighting his portfolio at 0.72%. In the second quarter, he sold 461,625 shares at an average price of $3.74 for a loss of 23.5%.

In six quarters of double-digit losses, Klarman has averaged a loss of 31% on 5,800,000 shares bought at an average price of $4.17 per share. He has averaged a loss of 38% o! n 1,798,473 shares sold at an average price of $4.59 per share.

Seth Klarman is one of six gurus holding AOI as of June 30, 2013, and there is recent insider trading.

Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC)

Predictability: 1 out of 5 Stars

Down 54% over 12 months, Kinross Gold Corporation has a market cap of $5.32 billion; its shares were traded at around $4.66, 2.8% above its 52-week low. The P/B ratio is 0.80. The dividend yield is 3.44%.

Kinross Gold Corporation is a Canadian-based gold mining company with mines and projects in Brazil, Canada, Chile, Ghana, Mauritania, Russia and the U.S. The company is engaged in the mining and processing of gold, and silver ore as a by-product. The company explores and acquires gold-bearing properties in the Americas, the Russian Federation and worldwide. The company produces gold and silver doré, a semi-pure alloy. The alloy is shipped to refineries for final processing.

The company reported revenue of $968 million for the second quarter of 2013, down from $1,005.6 million in the same quarter of 2012, but the reported net loss for the quarter is $2.48 billion, compared to net earnings of $113.9 million in the second quarter of 2012. Gold production was up at 655,381 gold equivalent ounces, compared to 632,772 ounces in the same quarter year over year.

Historical share pricing, revenue and net income:

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Guru Action: As of June 30, 2013, Seth Klarman holds 2,102,700 shares, valued at $10.72 million, and weighting his portfolio at 0.27%. In the second quarter, he made a new buy, picking up 2,102,700 shares at an average price of $5.82 for a loss of 19.9%.

Check out the numerous gurus holding KGC and very active insider trading.

Here is the complete portfolio of Seth Klarman.

Be sure to read:

1. Seth Klarman's Undervalued Stocks
2. Seth Klarman's Top Growth Companies
3. Seth Klarman's High Yield! stocks4. Stocks that Seth Klarman keeps buying

GuruFocus Real Time Picks reports the stock purchases and sales that Gurus have made within the prior 2 weeks. The report time lag can be as short as 2 days after the date of the transaction. This feature is for Premium Members only.

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